This is the pattern we have seen after the conventions: Trump is solidifying a core group of voters but not expanding his support anywhere else. A slight uptick in a less-populated part of the state can't make up for huge swings in places with a lot of voters. The margin in the Washington suburbs in the poll, for example, dwarfs how Fairfax has voted in past elections as it has shifted to the Democrats. Loudoun, an exurb county, has not moved as far to the left as Fairfax. But in this election, our poll has the region near Loudoun's recent peak in preferring the Democrat. (From seed article).
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